Intelligence Report
Aura Global
Your Pulse on the Planet: Global Top Headlines, Geopolitics & Breaking News
Monday, December 15, 2025
Global Top Headlines
Escalating Violence in DR Congo Displaces Half a Million
The United Nations has issued a grave warning regarding the humanitarian crisis in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where escalating violence driven by the M23 rebel offensive has uprooted over 500,000 people. The UN fears a potential "regional conflagration" as the situation rapidly deteriorates.
Civic Freedoms Under Siege Worldwide, Report Finds
A new CIVICUS 2025 Report reveals a significant decline in global civic space conditions throughout the year. The report highlights widespread attacks on civil liberties, including freedoms of association, peaceful assembly, petition, and religion, alongside notable crackdowns on press freedoms across most countries.
Climate Crisis Deepens: Glaciers Vanish, Temperatures Soar, Yet Some Regions Cool
New research projects the disappearance of 87% of New Zealand's glaciers if global warming hits 2.7°C, with global glacier loss potentially reaching 4,000 per year by the mid-2050s. 2025 is on track to be the second or third hottest year on record, with global temperatures expected to exceed 1.5°C within the next decade. However, some climate reports also indicate a period of climate stabilization or cooling in certain regions, with parts of North America and Eurasia experiencing their coldest months in decades, a trend linked to changes in atmospheric circulation. Scientists are also grappling with the complex and varied ways climate change will affect the spread of diseases.
Global Economy Shows Resilience Amid Fragility and Trade Tensions
The global economy has demonstrated unexpected resilience in 2025, but underlying fragilities persist, according to the OECD. Global growth is projected to decelerate from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026. Despite this slowdown, global trade is on course to reach a record $35 trillion this year. Elevated policy uncertainty, rising trade barriers, and the full impact of higher tariffs continue to pose risks to the economic outlook.
Geopolitical Landscape
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Ukraine-Russia War: Intense Fighting in Kupiansk, Peace Talks Continue
Ukrainian forces are continuing their efforts to push Russian troops out of Kupiansk, with an estimated 120 Russian soldiers currently encircled in the city. Reports indicate these encircled troops are receiving limited supplies, including flags rather than food. Russia launched a significant drone and missile attack overnight, targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is engaged in discussions with US and European delegations in Berlin to explore a peace settlement, though the Kremlin has indicated it is setting conditions to reject current Ukrainian and European peace plan drafts.
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Israel-Hamas Conflict: Ceasefire Fragile as Violence Persists
Hamas has confirmed the death of a senior commander, Raed Saad, in an Israeli strike within Gaza. The group has reiterated its rejection of disarmament and the proposed International Stabilization Force, asserting its right to maintain its arms. Despite a ceasefire agreement reached in October 2025, Israeli forces have conducted new airstrikes and heavy gunfire across southern and central Gaza, which Hamas has denounced as a "criminal violation" of the truce. Hamas has also outlined conditions for the second phase of the ceasefire, demanding a halt to Israeli strikes and the lifting of the Gaza blockade.
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US-China Relations: Economic Focus, AI Chip Exports, and Regional Pressure
The 2025 US National Security Strategy has reportedly shifted its focus, de-prioritizing the Indo-Pacific in favor of placing economics at the core of the relationship with the People's Republic of China. In a significant move, US President Donald Trump has allowed Nvidia to export its advanced H200 chips to China, a decision that could narrow China's artificial intelligence gap with the United States. Concurrently, China has intensified its military and diplomatic pressure on both Japan and Taiwan. While trade relations between the two global powers have been tumultuous, there are signs of a "cooling" or more temperate approach. China has also begun issuing general licenses for rare earth exports, which remains a crucial point of leverage.
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BRICS Bloc Continues De-Dollarization Efforts Amid US Warnings
The BRICS group of nations is actively pursuing de-dollarization, with Russia and China conducting the majority of their bilateral trade in yuan and rubles. However, the aspiration for a common BRICS currency faces significant hurdles due to internal rivalries and explicit warnings from US President Trump, who has threatened 100% tariffs if the bloc moves to replace the dollar.
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US Seizes Venezuelan Oil Tanker, Cuba Condemns "Piracy"
The United States has seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, an action that Cuba has vehemently condemned as an "act of piracy and maritime terrorism" and a "serious violation of international law." This incident follows earlier declarations by the US to close all airspace around Venezuela and hints of potential attacks within the country itself.
Breaking News
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UPDATE
Ukraine: The Ukrainian army continues its offensive in Kupiansk, with intelligence suggesting encircled Russian troops are receiving symbolic flags, not food. Overnight, Russia launched 153 drones, of which 133 were neutralized by Ukrainian forces.
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URGENT
Gaza: Fresh Israeli airstrikes and heavy gunfire have been reported across southern and central Gaza today, with Hamas calling these actions a "criminal violation" of the existing ceasefire.
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BUSINESS
EU & Russia: The European Union today imposed new sanctions on several key Russian oil traders in an effort to disrupt Moscow's petroleum revenue streams.
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UPCOMING
International Relations: The "2025 International Forum on Mutual Learning among Civilizations" is set to commence tomorrow, December 16, in Macao, focusing on cultural exchange and development.
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